Political instability is #1 operational risk for global trade

As we sail through 2025, the maritime sector finds itself navigating more than just open seas..

The latest ICS Maritime Barometer 2024–2025 offers a sobering view from the bridge, revealing that confidence across global shipping is ebbing even as risks—especially political and cyber—are surging like high tides..

From Red Sea hostilities to tariff skirmishes and an intensifying regulatory swell, the shipping industry is facing a complex brew of instability, uncertainty, and strategic hesitation.. This is not just another report—it is a weather chart for what lies ahead..

Political instability remains the North Star of concern

In a world reshaped by over 70 elections in 2024, the industry has declared political instability as its number one operational risk for the third consecutive year.. Yet, this year marks a dangerous low in confidence to manage this risk..

Geopolitics are not just redrawing trade maps—they are triggering insurance upheavals, escalating premiums, and fuelling anxiety over a looming global recession..

With U.S. tariff swings, Chinese vessel sanctions, and conflicts from Ukraine to the Red Sea, shipping companies find themselves caught in crossfire both literal and legislative..

As ICS Chairman Emanuele Grimaldi cautions, “In the face of what can feel like an unseeing or uncaring political system, we must strive as an industry to speak loudly with one voice.” That voice, however, now seems hoarser with every passing disruption..

Cyber risk rises, but with a hint of guarded optimism

Cyber-attacks have cemented their place as the second most prominent risk. From GPS jamming to ransomware threats, the digital frontier is under siege..

Yet, for the first time, shipping leaders are reporting a slight rise in their confidence to withstand this onslaught—perhaps reflecting better awareness, training, and a pivot towards resilience rather than mere prevention..

Still, there is a dangerous blind spot: only 1 in 6 shipowners say they truly understand what a cyber-secure vessel looks like upon delivery.. That statistic should send shivers down the keel of any modern fleet operator..

Regulatory overload and ‘admin fatigue’

Administrative burden has officially sailed into the top three risks for the first time.. With the EU ETS, FuelEU Maritime, and IMO’s evolving carbon frameworks, shipowners and managers are now buried in bureaucracy, just as they are being asked to lead the green transition..

Even the best-intentioned ESG legislation, like the EU’s CSRD and CSDDD, is being rolled back or delayed, sending mixed signals that add to strategic paralysis. Regulatory overload is not just slowing vessels—it is slowing decisions..

Trade barriers, crew crunch, and climate volatility: A full-spectrum challenge

The industry’s battle is not just upstream or digital—it is human.. Crew shortages, driven by pandemic scars and geopolitical shifts, have prompted new training and recruitment drives, with countries like Germany leading the way..

Meanwhile, trade barriers—from U.S. tariffs to Nigerian tax reforms—have surged in relevance.. Add to that extreme weather events, now at their highest recorded risk level, and it becomes clear: maritime resilience is being tested from all fronts..

Where to from here..??

What emerges from this barometer is not just a list of risks, but a quiet crisis of confidence. For the industry to move from uncertainty to strategy, from defence to resilience, it will require:

• More meaningful collaboration between governments and industry stakeholders..
• Stronger economic signals and funding to fast-track decarbonisation and tech deployment..
• More inclusive crew strategies that address both diversity and digital skills..
• And above all, unified advocacy, so the industry’s voice is not lost in the geopolitical din..

As we reflect on this year’s Barometer, one thing is clear: while the seas may be stormy, shipping has weathered worse.. The key now lies in steering with clarity, unity, and courage—because in times like these, silence is not neutrality.. It is surrender..

Has the industry lost its appetite for risk—or just its faith in leadership..??